Trading tools and agents · Paper tradingSimulated feed
Deterministic simulated 1X2 market; swaps to live TxODDS TxLINE odds when the hackathon apiToken is provisioned.
Meet Kelly
An autonomous agent that stakes fractional-Kelly positions wherever the Elo model disagrees with the market. It has been trading since matchday 1.
Bankroll
1,284.40
from 1,000.00 paper
ROI
+28.44%
5,201.75 total staked
Positions
64-40
hit rate 61.5%
Elo model Brier
0.546
lower is better
Compounding, one edge at a time
Bankroll
peak 1,373.42trough 593.40
M0 · startM104 · now
Dashed line marks the 1,000.00 starting bankroll. Each step is a settled position, in match order.
Where the model disagrees next
Open signals
No qualifying edges on the remaining fixtures.
104 settled · latest first
Position ledger
| Fixture | Position | Odds | Stake | Edge | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain vs Argentina | Spain | 2.11 | 35.73 | +8.5 pts | -35.73 |
| France vs England | France | 2.26 | 30.68 | +7.6 pts | -30.68 |
| England vs Argentina | Argentina | 2.33 | 38.26 | +9.2 pts | +50.89 |
| France vs Spain | Spain | 2.22 | 40.23 | +9.6 pts | +49.08 |
| Argentina vs Switzerland | Argentina | 1.71 | 68.11 | +12.0 pts | -68.11 |
| Norway vs England | England | 2.01 | 54.47 | +10.7 pts | -54.47 |
| Spain vs Belgium | Spain | 1.47 | 102.60 | +13.6 pts | +48.22 |
| France vs Morocco | France | 1.66 | 92.58 | +15.0 pts | +61.10 |
| Switzerland vs Colombia | Colombia | 2.02 | 34.14 | +8.1 pts | -34.14 |
| Argentina vs Egypt | Argentina | 1.31 | 125.92 | +14.8 pts | +39.04 |
| United States vs Belgium | Belgium | 2.67 | 28.02 | +7.9 pts | +46.79 |
| Portugal vs Spain | Spain | 1.73 | 51.71 | +10.6 pts | +37.75 |
| Mexico vs England | England | 2.04 | 43.56 | +10.7 pts | +45.30 |
| Brazil vs Norway | Brazil | 2.14 | 28.78 | +8.0 pts | -28.78 |
| Paraguay vs France | France | 1.52 | 77.03 | +13.1 pts | +40.06 |
| Canada vs Morocco | Morocco | 2.30 | 26.66 | +8.1 pts | +34.66 |
| Colombia vs Ghana | Colombia | 1.26 | 105.60 | +14.2 pts | +27.46 |
| Argentina vs Cape Verde | Argentina | 1.21 | 117.33 | +15.1 pts | -117.33 |
| Australia vs Egypt | Australia | 2.02 | 34.92 | +8.7 pts | -34.92 |
| Switzerland vs Algeria | Switzerland | 1.83 | 57.91 | +12.0 pts | +48.07 |
| Portugal vs Croatia | Portugal | 2.28 | 28.77 | +8.2 pts | +36.83 |
| Spain vs Austria | Spain | 1.38 | 86.20 | +13.0 pts | +32.76 |
| United States vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | United States | 1.62 | 77.24 | +14.9 pts | +47.89 |
| Belgium vs Senegal | Belgium | 2.66 | 19.57 | +6.7 pts | -19.57 |
| England vs DR Congo | England | 1.36 | 99.03 | +14.3 pts | +35.65 |
| Mexico vs Ecuador | Mexico | 2.49 | 18.83 | +6.7 pts | +28.06 |
| France vs Sweden | France | 1.36 | 96.38 | +16.8 pts | +34.70 |
| Ivory Coast vs Norway | Norway | 1.61 | 68.75 | +14.7 pts | +41.94 |
| Netherlands vs Morocco | Netherlands | 1.93 | 41.64 | +11.2 pts | -41.64 |
| Germany vs Paraguay | Germany | 2.21 | 39.21 | +11.1 pts | -39.21 |
Showing the latest 30 of 104 positions.
The strategy, in one sentence
Kelly stakes only when the Elo model's probability beats the de-vigged market by at least 4.0 pts, sizes each position at quarter-Kelly, and never risks more than 10% of bankroll on a single match.
Every number above is a deterministic replay over the real fixture list; no wagering, paper only.