How it works
Beat the algorithm
Elo Arena is a World Cup 2026 pick’em with a twist: every pick you make is scored against two references that never sleep. One is a rating system. The other is a market.
01Three players in every match
You
Before kickoff you call one of three outcomes: home win, draw, or away win. That is the whole interface. The interesting part is what you are calling it against.
The Elo model
The model implements the World Football Elo methodology: a logistic expected score, tournament-weighted K factors, and goal-difference multipliers, updated after every match. It is the same engine behind worldcupelo.com, open-sourced as @worldcupelo/elo.
The market
Live odds come from TxODDS TxLINE: a Solana-native, cryptographically verifiable feed of real market prices. The Arena strips the bookmaker margin and shows de-vigged market probabilities right next to the model’s, so you can see exactly where the two disagree, and pick a side.
Reading the bars
Every match card shows this tri-bar for the model, and a second one for the market once live odds are flowing.
02Scoring
One point per correct outcome. No spreads, no exact scores, no partial credit: you either called it or you did not.
Your accuracy is tracked against the model’s accuracy on the same matches. The model’s pick is simply its highest-probability outcome, so the comparison is honest: same fixtures, same information deadline, one brain versus one algorithm. Beating a calibrated rating system over a full tournament is genuinely hard, which is what makes it worth doing.
Streaks are tracked too. A long run of correct calls says more about you than any single upset, and the Arena keeps the receipts.
03The road to on-chain
Right now your picks live in your browser’s local storage: private, instant, and yours. That is deliberate. The picks store is isolated behind a single module so the next step swaps cleanly.
The next release anchors picks and settlement on Solana devnet. Results are settled trustlessly from TxLINE data using validate_stat and Merkle proofs, meaning no admin key decides who won: the feed proves it. Stakes use a devnet play token.
No real wagering, here or in any planned release. Devnet tokens have no monetary value; the Arena is a prediction game, not a sportsbook.
Built for the TxODDS World Cup Hackathon 2026, Consumer & Fan Experiences track. Market data via TxODDS TxLINE. Ratings engine: @worldcupelo/elo. Live national-team ratings: worldcupelo.com.